For interpretation of the data, see the note at Table 3-1. sonal transportation) than for explaining the choice or operation of water heating systems for buildings. It explores how the attitudes and actions of individuals, governments, and organizations intertwine to leave their mark on the health of the planet. Amazonian forest land is cleared for many purposes. distributed and especially vulnerable to extinction by regional or even local forest clearing. Deforestation reduces diversity at all three levels. Residential coal stoves often have only 10-18 percent efficiency (Xi et al., 1989). (1990) give a range of 0.01-2.2 for fertilization. Cows and sheep produce large amounts of methane when they digest their food. The idea of tree-structured accounting can be illustrated by the following sketch of a tree describing the causes of global climate change. Species with wide ranges are unlikely to be extinguished by habitat destruction within their range, but such destruction is likely to eliminate entirely the habitats of some of the species in the area with smaller ranges. Climate change, the periodic modification of Earth’s climate caused by atmospheric changes and the atmosphere’s interactions with geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic factors. The result has been impressive in building demography as a respected, interdisciplinary field within the social sciences, and in gaining knowledge of the causes of population growth. Another critical dimension may be the degree of centralization of the political system. Neoclassical economic theory argues that free markets efficiently allocate goods and services to the most valued ends. An additive model of these relationships is not viable, so the study of single causal factors in isolation is misleading. A quick technical fix may well be all that is needed, in which case the refrigeration-intensive (and energy-intensive and greenhouse gas-intensive) food and architectural systems of the twentieth century First World will continue to proliferate around the planet, with countries of the tropics presumably adopting them with even greater reason and greater intensity than those living in temperate regions. This fact has three major implications for research strategy: understanding the human causes is an intrinsically interdisciplinary project; the important human causes of global change are not all global; and comparative studies to specify the contingencies are critically needed (see #2 and #3 below). Waste management based on recycling, redesign of production processes, and the treatment of the wastes of one process as raw materials for another can reduce the environmental impact of economic activity (e.g., Ayres, 1978; National Research Council, 1985; Haefele et al., 1986; U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, 1986; Friedlander, 1989). An early estimate of the 100-year global warming potential of gas emissions in 1990 allocates it as follows: CO2, 61%; CH4, 15%; CFCs, 12%; N2O, 4%; other gases (NOx, nonmethane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide), 8% (Shine et al., 1990). One is the social change resulting from the current extensive strategy. In the second, technological innovation and adoption are. Comparative analysis at the global scale can take various forms. The task of making such accounts, even for a single tree, is enormous. Price Structure Policy sets coal prices for the state-owned mines artificially low, below the cost of production. By Stephanie Pappas 03 April 2019. Even in the brief period of recorded history, natural climate change has always been with us – whether it is the volcanically induced crop failures that helped precipitate the French revolution or the medieval warm period that allowed Vikings to colonise Greenland. When they remain for an extended period in the atmosphere, they are likely to cause climate change. The analysis that traces environmental degradation to the absence of free markets is criticized on several grounds. Initially, projections of the future accounts based on simple models will suffice to guide the research plan for human dimensions. These contradictory arguments, all plausible, can be weighed only by research that is specific (e.g., which technology, in which society, at what time) and that takes into account the other major social forces that cause or are affected by technological progress. the structure of consumer demand, the population and resource base for agricultural development, forms of national political organization, and development policies. 5. These are proximate human causes of climate change, and their impact is equal to their contribution of each greenhouse gas times the gas's radiative effect, integrated over time. Research on the human causes of global environmental change should be directed at important proximate sources. Consequently, research on the effects of technology on global change will need to consider the social context. The encouraging policy success at Montreal in 1987 was dramatic, but may have depended on special circumstances: there were only about two dozen CFC producers worldwide, and reductions threatened few of the existing infrastructures that had developed over the previous century and a half. It is easy to illustrate the principle. Table 3-1 presents the limbs during two different time periods and a projection for a future period. Population growth increases the demand for food, which creates pressure to make agriculture both more intensive and extensive. Learn more. The transformation of forest into inferior, rapidly degrading pasture was not inevitable. Such knowledge will allow social scientists to set worthwhile research priorities until more precision is available. Another involves diffusion of production technologies across national boundaries, particularly from more-developed to less-developed countries: How do the environmental impacts differ between the innovating countries and the adopting countries, and how do the differences depend on the social organizations using the technologies (e.g., Covello and Frey, 1989)? And this is not an isolated case. Squatters on public land can gain the rights to 100 ha by living on it and using it, but 100 ha is not sufficient for ranching. Where controversy tends to arise is over the relative primacy and hierarchical ordering of attitudes and beliefs relative to other causal factors, especially the degree to which beliefs and attitudes can be given causal force in their own right or are products of more fundamental forces. Second, the tendency of markets to place a higher value on possible impacts in the near future than on those in the distant future conflicts with the goal of long-term sustainability and reduces the rights of future generations effectively to zero (Weiss, 1988; Pearce and Turner, 1990). If not, is population growth a root cause of the degradation that follows, or merely an effect of more deeply underlying causes, such as changes in technology and social organization? A useful accounting system for the human causes of global change has a tree structure in which properties of the global environment are linked to the major human activities that alter them, and in which the activities are divided in turn into their constituent parts or influences. During the 20th and 21st century, the level of carbon dioxide rose by 40%. Burning fossil fuels– Fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal contain carbon dioxide t… Driving forces can cause each other. Fruits and vegetables from California and Florida and dairy products from metropolitan hinterlands throughout the East, were among the most important to benefit from the new ice delivery system (Cronon, 1991; Yeager, 1981; Kujovich, 1970; Giedion, 1948; Clemen, 1923; Swift and Van Vlissingen, 1927; Neyhart, 1952; Unfer, 1951; Fowler, 1952). They are useful but not definitive accounts. Finally, although humans might be expected to husband populations of species with economic value, this has not typically been the case on frontiers, as the exploitation of Amazonian rosewood and the American bison illustrate. From Florida to Texas to southern California, the massive influx of new residents depended in no small measure on the ability of buildings to protect their occupants from summer heat. Observational and experimental studies of these relationships have been done, although almost always with relatively small numbers of individuals in culturally and temporally restricted settings (see, e.g., Stern and Oskamp, 1987, for a review). This dependency model highlights the important role of foreign capital and extractive industries, but because it pits a monolithic global capitalism against a similarly undifferentiated and largely passive Third World, it cannot account for the historical specificity of particular cases or the variability in internal dynamics as systems adapt (Wolf, 1982). There is a critical need for support of the research that would constitute that field. Theory about these relationships is relatively weak, but the problem is of active interest to social scientists in several disciplines. Both human-made and natural factors contribute to climate change: • Human causes. By the time roads are constructed, most state land in the Amazon is already claimed (Binswanger, 1989). Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website. Short-sighted and self-interested ways of thinking can also act as underlying causes of environmental degradation. Thus, a high-priority study might be one that focuses on a country or activity that by itself contributes significantly to global change; or one that is expected to generalize to a sufficient number of individuals, firms, or communities to matter on a global level; or one that illuminates variables that explain important differences between actors at the chosen level of analysis. b Percentage of 100-year effects of all 1990 halocarbon emissions. Land Tenure Rights For centuries, it has been the legal practice to grant rights of possession to whoever deforests a piece of Brazilian land. But other directions of investment, focusing on new manufacturing and expanded energy services such as refrigeration and personal transportation, would be much more energy intensive. As the case studies demonstrate, the driving forces of global change are highly interactive. USGCRP (2017). Economic growth can proceed with decreasing energy intensity because of shifts of production from industrial to service sectors and adoption of more energy-efficient processes and technologies (World Resources Institute and International Institute for Environment and Development, 1988:114); energy use per capita, however, has continued to increase in these countries (World Bank, 1989:173). Bias toward growth and a hubristic disregard for physical limits, others have argued, are today the principal driving forces (e.g., Boulding, 1971, 1974; Daly, 1977). Wastes must be disposed of somewhere in the environment. There is, however, one branch of science that can reliably give an answer that is easy to understand and hard not to believe. Under what conditions do capitalist actors adopt practices of natural resource use or waste management that preserve environmental values? parisons of the environmental impacts of different technologies for energy production and consumption, food production, and other human activities that can have major impacts on the global environment, a topic that has received some attention in the past (e.g., Inhaber, 1978; Holdren et al., 1979, on energy production). ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one. For a policy-oriented analysis based on such an approach, see National Academy of Sciences, 1991b. Thus, energy use is the product of population, per capita economic output, and energy intensity—that is, energy use per unit of output. Indigenous groups combined relatively extensive strategies, such as temporary or shifting cultivation followed by natural forest regeneration and hunting and gathering of dispersed game, fish, and wild food plants, with more intensive farming of alluvial riverine and other soils of high, renewable fertility. Massive destruction of ozone followed very quickly, until natural circulation patterns replenished the supply and closed what came to be known as ''the ozone hole.'' But ammonia (like other refrigerant gases such as sulfur dioxide and methyl chloride) had serious problems. Climate change has always happened on Earth, which is clearly seen in the geological record; it is the rapid rate and the magnitude of climate change occurring now that is of great concern worldwide. And when the wastes are released to the atmosphere, rivers, and oceans, it is difficult to ensure that those who generate the waste pay the costs. Ready to take your reading offline? Because many different tree diagrams may be consistent with the same data, tree diagrams must be treated as having only heuristic, not explanatory, value. The extensive clearing of forest on the frontier reflects population pressure and food needs outside the local region, combined with a lack of population pressure locally (Denevan, 1981). The future of China's energy use can be analyzed in the terms of the accounting equation: population growth, economic development, and changes in energy intensity or productivity. This situation can arise because of traditional social arrangements that allow free access to all (Hardin, 1968) or because of the indivisible, common-pool nature of resources such as open-access marine fisheries (Gordon, 1954) and the world atmosphere. Natural science can help social science by providing an improved picture of the trunk and limbs, and particularly by improving estimates of the uncertainties of their sizes. In addition, chemical reactions in the atmosphere convert some radiationally inactive compounds into greenhouse gases over time. For comparison, the largely computer-based predictions published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change imply that quadrupling carbon-dioxide concentrations should increase temperatures by between 3C and 9C. References. It stays in the atmosphere for a very long time. The case-comparison approach allows for more contextual detail at the expense of complete coverage. An early argument in this vein attributed the modern environmental crisis to the separation of spirit and nature in the Judeo-Christian tradition (White, 1967); another traces the rise of capitalism with its materialist values and social and economic structures back to Protestant theology (Weber, 1958). That is why Thomas Midgely Jr.'s 1931 invention of Freon 12 represented a revolution for the refrigeration industry. The state is a major institution affecting global environmental change because state actions modify economic institutions and affect a wide range of human actions, including those with global environmental impacts. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb heat radiation. In general, the species hardest hit are likely to be the ones with large area requirements, narrow ranges, or value to humans for food, medicine, or timber, yet the entire taxonomic spectrum may suffer major losses.3 Some threatened species may be important to the region's economy and culture, some are used far beyond the Amazon Basin, and some have potential value to humans that is not yet known. Although these questions are very important for analyzing human-environment interactions, most current analyses of the effects of economic growth and environmental quality are based on conventional definitions of economic activity. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, a new report by a committee of the National Research Council, characterizes the global warming trend over the last 100 years, and examines what may be in store for the 21st century and the extent to which warming may be attributable to human … We have identified specific research needs throughout that discussion. The invention of CFCs started a process that led to building practices and patterns of human settlement with two unexpected and long-term effects on the global environment: a built-in demand for CFCs and a built-in demand for energy, not only for space cooling but also for transportation to and between the new dispersed, warm-climate population centers. Research should build understanding of the links between levels of analysis and between time scales. Such analysis is important for high-impact activities. Underdevelopment and poverty are "developed" and perpetuated by market mechanisms (Wallerstein, 1976; Frank, 1967). charges (Hildyard, 1990). Register for a free account to start saving and receiving special member only perks. For instance, the 1988 constitution provides that land ''in effective use,'' that is, cleared, cannot be expropriated for the purpose of agrarian reform (Hecht, 1989b). We briefly outline the evidence supporting and qualifying claims that each class of variable is an independent influence on global environmental change. An alternative development model generates increased production per unit of land by agricultural intensification rather than by extensive land uses such as shifting agriculture or ranching (Boserup, 1990; Turner et al., n.d.). Today, there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there ever has been in at least the past 800,000 years. And an observed trend in the United States, in which the main source of pollution has shifted from production activities to consumption activities, has effects on the overall economy-environment relationship that are not yet clear (Ayres and Rod, 1986; Ayres, 1978). If China turns inward to resist democratization, global concerns about energy efficiency may not influence Chinese policy for a long time. The Command Economy The practice of government-dictated production, combined with the price structure, allows highly inefficient enterprises to continue operating despite financial losses. Increased income or economic activity as measured by such indicators as gross national product is not, of course, equivalent to increased well-being. There is — and has already been enough — evidence showing that climate change is being driven by human activity, and is not just a part of a natural climate cycle. The Amazonian forest has long been inhabited by peoples that used a mixture of these strategies to support their economies. Trees help to regulate the climate by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Clearly, each person in a population makes some demand on the environment and the social system for the essentials of life—food, water, clothing, shelter, and so on. First, it leads to new ways to discover and exploit natural resources. It is reasonable to expect that in an ecosystem characterized by many smaller species, such as insects dependent on a single species for food, that the selective cutting of one tree species will cause multiple extinctions. Tables 3-2 and 3-3 allocate emissions of the most important greenhouse gases during the late 1980s to human activities. Other greenhouse gases, such as nitrous oxide, stay in the atmosphere for a long time. The threatened ecosystems provide regionally important services, such as creating soils, moderating temperatures, reducing soil erosion, cleaning the air and water, and preventing flood and drought (Smith, 1982). Comparative studies offer the best way to get inside the broad concepts and identify more specifically the features of growth and change in human activity that drive environmental change. Scientists know much about the technical changes that could mitigate China's greenhouse gas emissions, but they have relatively little quantitative understanding of the social factors that make possible, and interact with, technological change. The forces that cause environmental change can also be affected by it. A better typology of development paths is needed, so that researchers can identify the ways different styles of development affect the environment and the conditions under which a country or region takes one path or another. Tables 3-6 and 3-7 show that China's economy may be the most energy-intensive in the world. These incentives favored extensive enterprises and encourage livestock production even when returns from beef alone did not pay the cost of production. Even the world oil market, one of the most globally systemic of environmentally relevant human systems, is affected by national policies such as trade restrictions and tax policies that interfere with world flows. Our analysis uses the estimates of radiative forcing because they are far less uncertain. Researchers should study the causes of major environmental changes both globally and at lower geographic levels. CFC 22 production doubled between 1977 and 1984 (e.g., fast-food packaging), as did CFC 113 production (electronics industry). Perhaps the most valuable research over the near-term will come from comparative studies that involve either a large number of representative data points or a smaller number of selected regional case studies from around. In the future, however, the properties of concern to humanity are likely to change—ultra-violet radiation, after all, has been of global concern only since the 1960s. Of all the possible driving forces of environmental change, none has such a rich history in Western thinking as population growth. Historical cases, such as the CFC case, suggest some interesting hypotheses; over the near-term, efforts to catalogue and compare such hypotheses would be a useful first step toward a theory of the long-term effects of social change. Its significance can be captured by two phenomena of striking environmental significance: the shift in the seasonal consumption of electricity from peak load during the winter months (when energy consumption for lighting and space heating had always traditionally been at its highest) to peak load during the summer; and the steeply upward slope in the production and consumption of chlorinated fluorocarbons. Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earth’s poles. Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name. These systems may also help preserve mature forest ecosystems from destruction by reducing development pressure on them (Anderson, 1990). For times: fossil-fuel energy use increased almost in lockstep with economic activity in industrialized countries for many years; since the 1970s, the correlation has been nearly zero (see Chapter 4). Species with large area requirements are disproportionately affected when forest clearing is fragmented, as it typically is in Amazonia. There they encountered the ozone layer, the thin belt of unstable tripartite oxygen molecules that filters out much of the sun's ultraviolet radiation and protects living organisms on the surface of the planet from the effects of that radiation. Between 1965 and 1987, Chinese coal use—and CO2 emissions—increased at the same rate as total economic output. For many of the authors cited, links between key explanatory variables and global environmental change are only implicit; in such instances, we draw out the implications for global environmental change. MyNAP members SAVE 10% off online. Accidental explosions were frequent, and the toxic nature of the gas caused a number of fatalities. Larger landholdings bring more extensive use. Thus, environmental problems can be analyzed in terms of market failures, that is, conditions that prevent markets from operating freely. The third argument is that technological change is a net benefit to the environment because it can ameliorate environmental damage through more efficient resource use and the lessening of waste emissions (e.g., Simon and Kahn, 1984; also Ausubel et al., 1989; Gray, 1989; Ruttan, 1971). Such cases need to be collected so they can be studied systematically and testable hypotheses derived about what kinds of innovations are likely to acquire the social momentum that produces long-lasting and increasing effects on the global environment, such as has resulted from CFC technology or from the Brazilian development strategy used in the Amazon Basin. This is four times what the laborer could hope to earn from ordinary farm work. Other writers claim that a change in environmental ethics is necessary to prevent global environmental disaster (e.g., Stone, 1987; Sagoff, 1988). To make projections, it would be very useful to have detailed studies of the effects on emissions of increased income in other countries that have undergone recent spurts of economic growth, such as Taiwan and South Korea, even though these countries have no major impact on the global carbon dioxide balance. We begin this chapter by outlining and illustrating an approach to accounting for the major proximate causes of global change, and then proceed to the more difficult issue of explaining them. The chief environmental property of concern is the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The very form of the post-World War II city, with its tall office buildings, fixed windows, and energy-intensive controlled climate systems, presumes a significant commitment to refrigeration and cooling. The source of controversy centers around more complex questions. A third concerns the commonly alleged short-sightedness of corporate decisions about the environment. We conclude by stating some principles that follow from current knowledge and some implications for research. Subsequent scientific investigations soon led to what is now the most widely accepted explanation of what was happening. Although China cannot be expected to increase its energy productivity 2.5 times to India's level—the ample availability of low-cost coal in China gives it less incentive to economize on energy—it seems to have room for huge improvements in efficiency. However, the social and economic changes brought about by Amazonian development have created barriers to making and implementing such policies. 'S past climates – has used fossils to show links between levels of aggregation are closely to... 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